Sunday, January 30, 2011

The marginal value of a hand in the face

Sacramento Kings player offensive production by shot contestedness from

This boils the key to basketball down to creating and preventing open shots. I love the simplicity. Notice how a man covering his own man and preventing an open shot has an impact of 40 where adding the same man to a double team has about an impact of 20. Assuming teams are double teaming efficiently, this means that the double teamed offensive player likely shoots too often and finds the open man to infrequently. It is important to realize that the first open man will often not be the shooter against a team making proper rotations, meaning that a posted big drawing double that is passing out effectively might show no direct stats for his good productivity, meaning this skill and judgement is likely under-ewarded. His plus/minus would rise, so maybe he gets paid appropriately despite not earning many all star votes.

No comments:

Post a Comment