Saturday, January 15, 2011

Do tech stocks deserve lower multiples?

They might be growing fast but can also fall fast. Kellogg's is not going anywhere. Yahoo! was founded in 1995 and is losing air quickly. Still one of the highest traffic sites, it make money with middle America non-tech savvy people, but those in tech tend to perceive an email address as indicating ignorance. To the extent than companies grow quickly, can they also shrink quickly? Groupon--boom to bust? Here are MS and Apples revenues. Not a spike like Groupon's.

Under what conditions can a company grow quickly and retain its profits. Ebay, Paypal, Amazon, all yes. Ebay and Paypal have network externalities. Amazon has grown from a retailer to a community also (plus other businesses such as AWS and Mechanical Turk, but these are small time in comparison) I think Groupon has to become stickier by offering more, but I don't know what.

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