Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Marginal Revolution Comment: Why does anyone support private macroeconomic forecasts?

Marginal Revolution: Why does anyone support private macroeconomic forecasts?


My financial services industry experience indicates that macroeconomic/stock market forecasts are to (1) create a sense of thought leadership and seriousness and (2) calm the sales people and clients by saying "Everything will be OK. We know what is happening and have it all under control."


I agree that there is no reason for firms to believe that their economist is better than any cheaper alternative, that growth will match last quarter, or a very simple model such as growth will revert half way to the mean of the previous 5 years.

No comments:

Post a Comment