Maybe with a lower chance of contracting HIV people have sex more often and with more people thereby accelerating the spread of HIV.
Take the use of a daily prevention pill for uninfected sexually active heterosexuals, the population hardest-hit by HIV globally.
This is true on a total number of cases basis, but not true relative to the percentage of population affected. In which population the per pill effect is greatest is not a simple problem. For example, if a population has either 0 percent or 100 percent infection, the drugs do not impact the spread, but in the 100 percent infected population do affect the heath. At what percent infection, what frequency of sex, what transmission rate, is the spread minimized? Are members of all populations valued equally? What is each groups political influence?
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