Monday, March 14, 2011

Brilliant or they don't understand markets--Failure anticipated

It took me a while to determine what was being bet on.  The answer is the price when the player is retired, meaning the price when the players team is eliminated from the playoffs.  Oddly, and unlike futures markets, their is no deliverable and no link to an underlying valuation.  The price is based on supply and demand, but to no intrinsic value.  The price of the league MVP could be the same as the price of a 12th man and there is no way to arbitrage.  The prices are not linked to performance other than by the preferences of users to buy and sell.  Very strange!!!  I bet it will fail.  Pun intended, even though they argue that the site facilitates investing not betting, so it is legal.  

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