Tuesday, August 17, 2010
To Bomb or not to Bomb: What is Israel"s optimal strategy?
I suggest that an "Israeli Rogue" is sent to blow it up. Israel gets the plat eradicated with plausible deniability. Maybe the French will fall for it. Russia won't mind so long as Iran orders another. There probably are more hidden underground. This one is likely a decoy. How funny blow it up only to find it was made of Lego.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
UWC will this work: Marginal Revolution: Assorted links
Marginal Revolution: Assorted links
Original article
I find the promise disingenuous. There has to be a limit, otherwise am employee might simply not come back but continue collecting a paycheck for life.
Original article
I find the promise disingenuous. There has to be a limit, otherwise am employee might simply not come back but continue collecting a paycheck for life.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Marginal Revolution: Very difficult BASKETBALL question
Marginal Revolution: Very difficult questions
Points scored is the most overrated; steals are likely second, because of the risks required to get a steal and the absence of a "blown defense" statistic.
Shooting percentage, rebounding, and assists are underrated because they correlate with control, hustle, and smarts all of which have positive untracked impact.
The efficiency per minute ranking is pretty good. I also like the plus minus points per 48 minutes. One I think should be used but I have not seen is points per net possession.
A good metric, though not tracking defense well, is:
Points/(Shots+Rebounds+Steals-Turnovers)
When a player goes to the free thrown line counts as a shot, because doing so usually leads to loss of possession (hence the "hack a Shaq" strategy). One could improve the accuracy by differentiating between offensive and defensive rebounds, because the probability that a teammate gets an offensive board is far less than the probability that a teammate gets a defensive board, making each offensive board more valuable. Also, shots missed when the player receives the ball with little time on the shot or game clock might be removed to not penalize players for getting stuck with it. Kobe might for example be a last resort and thus takes most last second shots because it is simply better than any alternative at that point, despite the time crunch likely not being his fault.
It is hard to track defense because steals is the only statistic. How does one keep track of when a player is slow to rotate and provides an extra half second increasing the three point shooter's percentage?
Points scored is the most overrated; steals are likely second, because of the risks required to get a steal and the absence of a "blown defense" statistic.
Shooting percentage, rebounding, and assists are underrated because they correlate with control, hustle, and smarts all of which have positive untracked impact.
The efficiency per minute ranking is pretty good. I also like the plus minus points per 48 minutes. One I think should be used but I have not seen is points per net possession.
A good metric, though not tracking defense well, is:
Points/(Shots+Rebounds+Steals-Turnovers)
When a player goes to the free thrown line counts as a shot, because doing so usually leads to loss of possession (hence the "hack a Shaq" strategy). One could improve the accuracy by differentiating between offensive and defensive rebounds, because the probability that a teammate gets an offensive board is far less than the probability that a teammate gets a defensive board, making each offensive board more valuable. Also, shots missed when the player receives the ball with little time on the shot or game clock might be removed to not penalize players for getting stuck with it. Kobe might for example be a last resort and thus takes most last second shots because it is simply better than any alternative at that point, despite the time crunch likely not being his fault.
It is hard to track defense because steals is the only statistic. How does one keep track of when a player is slow to rotate and provides an extra half second increasing the three point shooter's percentage?
Monday, August 9, 2010
Way Wrong: Jack Jolis: The Truth About Blood Diamonds - WSJ.com
Jack Jolis: The Truth About Blood Diamonds - WSJ.com: "The parallel occurrences of diamonds and internecine mayhem in Africa are in no way causative—certainly no more than by any other commercial commodity found in the continent. When was the last time we heard of 'blood manganese,' or 'blood copper,' or, for that matter, 'blood bananas' or 'blood cut flowers'?"
Diamonds are special. Easily transportable, virtually indestructible diamonds can be produced with unskilled labor, little capital, little need for planning, no post find processing, and know distribution channels. They are also essentially untraceable or very expensive to trace which makes diamonds a near perfect product with which to fund conflicts. Non of the other products mentioned have all these characteristics. How can such incorrect statements get past the editors at the WSJ.
Possibly the most incorrect article ever on Social Security
Link http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hiltzik-20100808,0,1359956.column?track=rss
I hardly know where to start, but this conclusion sums it up.
"The trust fund may not last forever, but reports of its demise are certainly premature. The trustees say it will be drawn down to zero in 2037, at which point the program will only have enough money coming in from taxes to pay 78% of the benefits due under current law. So sometime in the next quarter-century — but by no means right now — does anything have to be fixed, say through a hike in the payroll tax ceiling (or, better, its elimination)?"
I would appreciate an estimate of how much taxes would have to immediately in 2038 to continue making all payments with no fund remaining.
Please suggest your favorite lines, with analysis.
I hardly know where to start, but this conclusion sums it up.
"The trust fund may not last forever, but reports of its demise are certainly premature. The trustees say it will be drawn down to zero in 2037, at which point the program will only have enough money coming in from taxes to pay 78% of the benefits due under current law. So sometime in the next quarter-century — but by no means right now — does anything have to be fixed, say through a hike in the payroll tax ceiling (or, better, its elimination)?"
I would appreciate an estimate of how much taxes would have to immediately in 2038 to continue making all payments with no fund remaining.
Please suggest your favorite lines, with analysis.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
UWC will you wear red?
Why women are attracted to a man dressed in red | Mail Online
It gets interesting when one considers common knowledge of the phenomenon.
If all women know that all men know that women are attracted to red, then do women treat men who are wearing red like horny devils?
Can women control the primal urges instigated by red? If not then men should wear red regardless of what women know.
If women can control their urges if they know the man is wearing red just to attract them, is a man's best strategy to wear stealth red that women's subconscious will recognize but the women will not consciously process and accordingly not compensate by treating a man like the "horny devils that wear red?"
If women know horny devils wear red, and they are looking for a horny devil, then wearing red is a low risk way (ego-wise) of attracting women who are ready for action.
Does red attract men to women, men to men, and/or women to women?
When will you wear red?
Thoughts?
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Marginal Revolution: The second strangest headline I read today
Marginal Revolution: The second strangest headline I read today
My favorite quote.
"If we start mixing with Chinese, they will slowly swallow us up. Mongolian society is not very rich. Foreigners come with a lot of money and might start taking our women."
When men lose their likelihood of reproduction they try to do so by any means necessary. Some even sign-up to blow-up in hope of a boat load of virgins.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)